STANDING ON THE PRECIPICE

South Carolina holds their Republican Presidential primary tomorrow, and it marks a potential turning point for the party and the nation. Tomorrow starts a several week stretch that may determine the Republican nominee. Huckabee won Iowa with strong evangelical support, McCain carried the always independent New Hampshire, and Mitt Romney has won the Wyoming caucus and took his birthplace of Michigan with a strong economic message in a state hurting more than most. No clear national leader has emerged for the GOP, and it's possible the nominee might be selected on the floor of the convention. Tomorrow is the start of a process that will decide whether traditional conservatism will flourish or be unrecognizably altered.

The South Carolina campaign has been heated. Telephone calls to voters indicating McCain is a traitor or that some other candidate is secretly evil are just despicable. These sort of tactics originate from outside, so called "527" groups that are fronts for candidates willing to do the dirty work or lunatics. It is slightly ironic that a phenomenon created by the horrendously unconstitutional McCain-Feingold campaign finance law is coming back to bite one of the creators, but that in no way excuses this type of slander against any candidate. Mitt Romney has pulled out of South Carolina and headed to friendlier Nevada, and he's likely to win there with heavy Mormon support. Rudy Guliani has fallen off the map, dismissed the early primaries, and appears to base all his hopes on taking Florida out of nowhere later. McCain can expect firm support from older military veterans, but struggles to gain the trust of conservatives he has repeatedly affronted. Huckabee continues his apparent plan to win the White House on the support of evangelicals alone, and to the detriment of the process he has successfully mesmerized some into supporting his Christian socialism. Fred Thompson, in my view the only solid and consistent conservative, has struggled to gain widespread support despite his clear vision of the principles and future of the party. All the other candidates have a flaw that make their run a hobbled effort, a dark and foreboding cloud for November. Fred represents a return to the Ronald Reagan brand of conservatism the party has neglected and is threatening to abandon. The common sense traditional values evident time and again in Thompson's policy statements and speaking opportunities represent the core beliefs of a conservative Republican Party. Fred has said he has to "do well," but it's clear what's needed is a big win to justify his further participation. A win in South Carolina tomorrow would vault him into the news and increase fundraising. If another candidate wins, it marks the beginning of some very dark possibilities.

A poor finish by the only real conservative in the race will be a very strong indicator. It will mark the point at which the GOP stopped being a conservative party. We're also choosing the head of the party, and that leader will obviously determine party philosophy to a large extent. We risk the loss of any semblance of conservatism within the party. At that point there will be little philosophical difference between Republicans and Democrats, leaving dedicated conservatives including myself with nowhere to go.

I'll remain optimistic until tomorrow evening. I have to hope the electorate in South Carolina will reject a moderate version of the party and select a candidate worthy of our full philosophical support. The party shouldn't cut moral deals in supporting a candidate that is not solidly conservative for perceived general election gain. The truth is that the party will not win in November without a candidate of unquestioned political beliefs and the ability to communicate them. The only man to fit the bill is Fred Thompson.